House Defense Appropriations Subcommittee Chairman Ken Calvert is likely to seek a waiver to remain the top Republican on the coveted panel in the next Congress, sources familiar with his thinking say, as GOP conference term limit rules dictate he otherwise would have to step aside.

Calvert, of course, first has to win reelection in a California race that’s one of the chamber’s most competitive this November, rated Tilt Republican by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales. For now, his team’s official stance on the Defense subcommittee slot is that it’s too early to discuss.

“Rep. Calvert is solely focused on getting his [fiscal 2025] Defense bill completed and signed into law,” Calvert spokesman Jason Gagnon said.

Term limit waivers are sometimes handed out by GOP leadership, and sometimes they are not. It often depends on the specific circumstances. House Education and the Workforce Chairwoman Virginia Foxx, R-N.C., stayed in her position at the start of this Congress despite her six years being up, for instance.

But then-House Appropriations Chairwoman Kay Granger, R-Texas, and Republican leadership opted not to grant waivers to former top subcommittee Republicans that were term-limited out at the start of 2023, leading to a substantial shakeup on the panel for the 118th Congress.

Appropriations Chairman Tom Cole, R-Okla., will now have to decide whether to ask the Republican Steering Committee, which officially recommends committee assignments, to ratify Calvert’s expected request, or follow conference rules and open up a competition.

First, Calvert needs to survive what is shaping up to be a tough election campaign against former federal prosecutor Will Rollins.

Calvert defeated Rollins by four percentage points in 2022, though a presidential election featuring Vice President Kamala Harris, a Californian, at the top of the Democratic ticket is likely to give Rollins a boost.

The campaign is contentious, and Calvert is facing allegations that he has directed earmarks to areas that are close to property he owns, including funding to add lanes to reduce traffic along Interstate 15. A Calvert campaign spokesman called the allegation “meritless” and pushed by a “far-left Super PAC” in a statement to the Riverside Press-Enterprise.

Calvert was first elected 1992 and for most of his career represented a very red district in Southern California. However, he has been redistricted into a more competitive area. Under new district lines, former President Donald Trump’s win over President Joe Biden narrowed to about 1 point in 2022, from more than 7 points if the old boundaries had been in place, according to calculations by Daily Kos.

If Calvert loses reelection, or does not receive his waiver, a handful of top Republican appropriators could seek to replace him.

Military Construction-VA Appropriations Chairman John Carter, R-Texas, is also facing term limits in his role. His plans are not clear, and his office did not respond to a request for comment.

Carter, who turns 83 in November, is running for reelection in a safe district. He cruised to victory in his primary, though one of his opponents brought attention to Carter’s missed votes during this Congress, according to the Killeen Daily Herald.

Last year, Carter missed nearly 18 percent of House votes, including one particularly lengthy absence during September and early October, including the fateful vote to topple ex-Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif. Carter’s office told the Daily Herald he was dealing with a viral infection during that time.

This year, Carter’s attendance is back up and he’s missed less than 8 percent of votes so far, according to CQ Roll Call data, a more typical record for lawmakers.

Transportation-HUD Appropriations Chairman Steve Womack, R-Ark., is seen as one potential option for the Defense slot if it opens up. He’s the most senior subcommittee member other than Harold Rogers, R-Ky., the former full committee chairman and current dean of the House.

Womack just assumed the “THUD” slot with Cole’s recent ascension, however. There are other members who have been on the full committee longer than Womack and could seek the Defense position, including Alabama’s Robert B. Aderholt, Idaho’s Mike Simpson, Carter and Florida’s Mario Diaz-Balart.