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Stuart Rothenberg

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The Democratic Party is largely focused on the same issues and voters since the New Deal, Stu Rothenberg writes.

Still your father’s (and grandfather’s) Democratic Party

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted August 19, 2024 at 12:39pm
Vice President Kamala Harris, Democratic nominee for president, and her running mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, address a rally to kick off their campaign at the Liacouras Center in Philadelphia on Aug. 6.

Toss-up, but with an edge to Kamala Harris

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted August 12, 2024 at 12:49pm
Vice President Kamala Harris addresses an event with descendants of iconic civil rights leaders to celebrate Black History Month at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building on Feb. 13.

Have the 2024 fundamentals changed?

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted July 29, 2024 at 2:29pm
From left, Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Fla., former President Donald Trump, vice presidential nominee Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio, and Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-La., sit together at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee on Monday.

Not your father’s (or grandfather’s or great-grandfather’s) GOP

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted July 16, 2024 at 6:00am, Updated at 4:36pm
President Joe Biden is increasingly the focus of the 2024 presidential race, which is not advantageous to his campaign, Stuart Rothenberg writes.

Biden is not the candidate Democrats want voters to focus on

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted July 8, 2024 at 1:14pm
President Joe Biden has terrible approval ratings, but there is still a path to re-election for him.

Does Joe Biden need a miracle or just a bit of good luck?

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted June 17, 2024 at 11:56am
House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., arrives to a news conference after a meeting of the House Republican Conference in the Capitol Visitor Center on May 7.

Elise Stefanik for veep?

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted May 8, 2024 at 12:40pm
A combination of Oct. 22, 2020, pictures of then-President Donald Trump, left, and Democratic rival Joe Biden during their final presidential debate at Belmont University in Nashville, Tenn.

Would this debate have a winner?

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted April 30, 2024 at 11:59am
Republican Senate candidate Steve Garvey tosses a baseball to supporters at his election night watch party on March 5 in Palm Desert, Calif.

Steve Garvey: Not the next Jim Bunning

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted April 17, 2024 at 3:45pm

For Biden, being tied in national polls isn’t good enough

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted April 8, 2024 at 2:08pm
The state flag of North Carolina is seen in the Senate subway tunnel. The state's gubernatorial election might have an outsize effect on the presidential election, give the unique electorate.

Carolina on my mind for November

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted March 11, 2024 at 3:00pm
President Joe Biden addresses reporters on the South Lawn of the White House before boarding Marine One for a trip to Los Angeles for a campaign reception on Feb. 20.

It’s still a Biden referendum. That’s not good for him

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted February 27, 2024 at 1:51pm
Rep. Kay Granger, R-Texas, is just one of many policy-oriented legislators who seem fed up with Congress and are calling it quits.

The wrong people are retiring from Congress

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted February 12, 2024 at 2:33pm
The seats held by Sens. Jon Tester, D-Mont., left, and Joe Manchin III, D-W.Va., offer Republicans two of their biggest pickup opportunities.

The states that matter in 2024

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted February 5, 2024 at 11:45am
Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, center, at her 2017 confirmation hearing to be ambassador to the United Nations with two others who have run against Donald Trump for the Republican presidential nomination, South Carolina Sens. Tim Scott, left, and Lindsey Graham.

Close but no cigar for Nikki Haley

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted January 22, 2024 at 5:00am
Former President Donald Trump has a good chance of winning the presidency in November, and could have GOP majorities in both chambers of Congress, Stu Rothenberg writes.

The possibility of a 2024 Republican sweep

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted January 8, 2024 at 8:47am
Alabama GOP Sen. Tommy Tuberville garnered a dubious honor from columnist Stuart Rothenberg this year.

Rothenberg’s best and worst of 2023

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted December 11, 2023 at 10:24am
Republican presidential candidate and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks with Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds during a campaign rally on Nov. 6 in Des Moines, Iowa. Reynolds endorsed DeSantis' run for president at the event.

Why Kim Reynolds’ endorsement in Iowa is ‘Meh’

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted November 13, 2023 at 12:31pm
Of all the GOP presidential hopefuls who are not Donald Trump, Nikki Haley has run the most interesting campaign.

The incredibly shrinking GOP presidential contest

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted November 6, 2023 at 11:41am
Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., concludes a news conference on the House steps of the Capitol on Oct. 25.

The religious right takes control of the House

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted October 30, 2023 at 11:37am
Rep. Paul D. Ryan, right, stands with outgoing Speaker John A. Boehner before Ryan was sworn in on the House floor as the 54th speaker on Oct. 29, 2015.

Boehner to Ryan to McCarthy to — Jordan?

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted October 16, 2023 at 2:14pm
Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., stops to speak as he leaves the House Republican conference meeting in the Capitol on Monday.

Why Democrats aren’t far ahead heading into 2024

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted October 10, 2023 at 11:26am
Republican presidential candidates (L-R), North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Sen. Tim Scott and former U.S. Vice President Mike Pence walk on the stage at the FOX Business Republican Primary Debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library on September 27, 2023 in Simi Valley, California.

For some presidential hopefuls, hope fades fast

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted October 2, 2023 at 1:58pm
Political analyst Stu Rothenberg cautions that current polls cannot predict the election year dynamics for 2024.

Breaking news: The 2024 election isn’t tomorrow

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted September 20, 2023 at 12:10pm
Conspiracy theorist and anti-vaccination activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. testifies to the House Judiciary Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government on July 20.

2024 outlook: Moving from strange to bizarre

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted July 24, 2023 at 11:15am
Former Rep. Will Hurd of Texas may not raise enough money to compete seriously for the GOP presidential nomination.

Having more GOP candidates does not mean more equal contenders

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted July 10, 2023 at 1:11pm
Former Vice President Mike Pence acknowledges the crowd after a speech at The Heritage Foundation in October. Pence is running for president at a time former President Donald Trump is dominating media coverage and enjoys a high degree of loyalty among Republicans.

With Mike Pence, the conventional wisdom might be correct

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted June 12, 2023 at 10:59am
Democratic presidential nominee Michael Dukakis tried in 1988 to win national support by running on his record as Massachusetts governor.

DeSantis may want to ask Dukakis about running on Florida record

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted June 5, 2023 at 1:08pm
Sen. Tim Scott announces his run for president in North Charleston, S.C., on Monday.

Growing GOP presidential field helps Donald Trump

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted May 22, 2023 at 4:15pm
Guests walk past vendors as they arrive for what was supposed to be a rally hosted by former President Donald Trump on May 13 in Des Moines, Iowa. Trump's campaign canceled the rally before the gates were officially opened due to the possibility of tornadoes moving through the region.

With Trump 2024, never say never

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted May 15, 2023 at 2:36pm
Rep. Colin Allred, a Democrat seeking the nomination for Senate in Texas next year, joined members of the Congressional Black Caucus on the House steps on Feb. 8, 2022.

Does Colin Allred stand a chance against Ted Cruz in Texas?

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted May 9, 2023 at 6:30am
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. officially announces his candidacy for president on April 19, 2023 in Boston.

Long shots for president? How about no shots

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted May 1, 2023 at 2:21pm
The combative style of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is widely believed to be preparing to enter the race for president, hurts his ability to appeal to voters who might be turned off by former President Donald Trump, columnist Stu Rothenberg writes.

What is Ron DeSantis DeDoing?

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted April 24, 2023 at 12:13pm
Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., delivers the keynote address at the Charleston County GOP Black History Month Banquet at the Citadel Alumni Center in Charleston, S.C., on Feb. 16.

Not ready for prime time

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted April 17, 2023 at 12:29pm
Speaker John Boehner shakes hands with President Barack Obama before Obama addressed a joint session of Congress on Sept. 8, 2011.

Don’t expect standoff over debt limit to end anytime soon

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted April 4, 2023 at 1:15pm
Then-President Donald Trump alongside Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, who was then majority leader, in 2019.

For Trump and Trumpers, the script doesn’t change

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted March 27, 2023 at 2:26pm
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, seen last year on a video screen at a Turning Point Action rally in Youngstown, Ohio, is widely expected to seek the GOP presidential nomination.

The incredible shrinking GOP presidential field

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted March 13, 2023 at 1:35pm
Kari Lake, former Republican candidate for Arizona governor, talks with House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., left, and Rep. Paul Gosar, R-Ariz., after the National Prayer Breakfast in the Capitol Visitor Center on February 2, 2023.

Can’t anyone here play this game?

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted March 6, 2023 at 4:54pm
Samantha Power, left, U.S. Agency for International Development administrator, and Oksana Markarova, Ukrainian ambassador to the U.S., attend a rally at the Lincoln Memorial on Saturday to mark the one-year anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Ukraine, Putinism, isolationism and the GOP

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted February 27, 2023 at 2:20pm
Gov. Larry Hogan, R-Md., is certainly qualified to be president. But there is no chance he would win the GOP nomination, Stu Rothenberg writes.

On your mark. Get set. Yawn.

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted February 15, 2023 at 12:21pm
Nikki Haley during her 2009 interview with Stuart Rothenberg at the Roll Call offices.

What my 2009 interview with Nikki Haley tells me about 2024

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted February 6, 2023 at 11:57am
Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio, chairman of the Judiciary Committee, is one of the more prominent House Republicans.

Republicans still trying to starve the beast

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted January 30, 2023 at 3:10pm
The political dynamics for each party in the majority in the House and Senate put their future in charge in jeopardy, Stuart Rothenberg writes.

Could both the House and Senate flip in 2024?

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted January 17, 2023 at 3:01pm
Speaker Kevin McCarthy accepts the gavel from Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries early Saturday after McCarthy won the speakership on the 15th ballot.

The end of the beginning or the beginning of the end?

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted January 10, 2023 at 6:00am
Then-President Donald Trump alongside Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, who was then majority leader, in 2019.

The beginning of the end for Donald Trump? Probably.

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted December 14, 2022 at 2:59pm
Washington Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez had no chance in a solidly Republican district, but on Friday she was drawing a number in the new member lottery for Capitol Hill office space.

Rothenberg’s best and worst of 2022

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted December 6, 2022 at 6:00am
President Joe Biden conducts a news conference on the midterm elections and other issues at the White House on Wednesday.

Surprisingly, a choice, not a referendum

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted November 14, 2022 at 2:17pm
President Joe Biden didn’t suffer typical losses Tuesday, but it is far from obvious that he will be strengthened by the midterm results, Rothenberg writes.

Midterm jinxes and presidential rebounds

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted November 9, 2022 at 4:34pm
A trailer with messages supporting former President Donald Trump and Doug Mastriano, Republican nominee for governor of Pennsylvania, is seen last month along I-76 in western Pennsylvania.

Presidential approval, election mandates and the midterm dynamic

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted November 1, 2022 at 1:59pm
Rep. Elaine Luria, D-Va., is in a tough race coming into the home stretch of the election.

Too close to call? When is a dead heat really a dead heat?

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted October 24, 2022 at 12:44pm
Republicans won’t want to give President Joe Biden any successes in 2023 or 2024, Stuart Rothenberg writes. Above, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, left, and Minority Whip Steve Scalise.

Meet the new politics, same as the old politics

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted October 18, 2022 at 6:00am
Michigan Rep. Peter Meijer was ousted in an August Republican primary after Democrats spent heavily informing GOP voters about his opponent's support for former President Donald Trump.

So what if Democrats meddled in GOP primaries?

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted October 4, 2022 at 6:00am
Democratic Senate nominee John Fetterman arrives for a rally in Philadelphia on Saturday. Polls show Fetterman leading GOP nominee Mehmet Oz, and Democrats are showing growing confidence about the race, Rothenberg writes.

The fight for the Senate: Fundamentals, polling and opposition research

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted September 26, 2022 at 2:17pm
President Joe Biden, Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer and Speaker Nancy Pelosi at the semiconductor legislation signing ceremony at the White House in August. A string of legislative accomplishments has coincided with a more favorable political environment for Democrats heading into the midterm elections.

Midterms 2022: April seems like ancient history

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted September 19, 2022 at 2:18pm
President Joe Biden has seen his approval ratings tick up slightly. Several political factors are giving Democrats hope they can avert historical midterm campaign trends, Stuart Rothenberg writes.

Learning from the 1998 and 2002 midterms

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted September 7, 2022 at 9:00am
Kansas Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids reacts to the announcement that a proposed constitutional amendment on abortion was defeated during an election watch party in Overland Park on Aug. 2.

What the national analysis of Kansas left out

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted August 8, 2022 at 1:28pm
Andrew Yang, above, is joining forces with former Florida GOP Rep. David Jolly and former New Jersey GOP Gov. Christine Todd Whitman to launch a third party. Stu Rothenberg considers the challenges they face.

A third major party? Don’t hold your breath

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted August 1, 2022 at 3:21pm
President Joe Biden's bad poll numbers should make predictions for the fall campaign easy, but 2022 is not a normal year.

Confused about 2022? You should be

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted July 18, 2022 at 1:14pm
Voters in Nye County arrive for early voting in May at a community center in Pahrump, Nev. Nevada is on the short list of states that will determine who controls the Senate next year, Stuart Rothenberg writes.

A handful of voters will decide Senate control in 2022

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted June 28, 2022 at 8:00am
Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, D-Pa., speaks with guests during a rally at the UFCW Local 1776 KS headquarters in Plymouth Meeting, Pa., in April.

Will the Democrats’ working-class strategy pay off?

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted June 21, 2022 at 1:57pm
Sen. Christopher S. Murphy seems to understand that politics is the art of accomplishing the possible, and he's the kind of candidate Democrats should be looking to recruit, columnist Stuart Rothenberg says.

What’s next for Chris Murphy?

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted June 6, 2022 at 2:40pm
Gov. Brian Kemp takes a photo as Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger looks on at an annual cookout in Glennville, Ga., in April. Kemp is expected to defeat former Sen. David Perdue — former President Donald Trump's pick — this week in the GOP gubernatorial primary.

Trump gubernatorial endorsements show questionable judgment

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted May 23, 2022 at 3:58pm
Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and his supporters continue to drive much of the policy agenda of the Democratic Party.

Sometimes, a political party needs to listen to the voters

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted May 17, 2022 at 6:30am
Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer, D-N.Y., joined by, from left, Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., Patty Murray, D-Wash., Mazie K. Hirono, D-Hawaii, and Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., speaks Thursday during a news conference to announce the Senate will vote on the Women's Health Protection Act of 2022.

It’s probably still the economy, stupid

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted May 9, 2022 at 12:27pm
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., discusses inflation during a news conference in March. In a new survey, more Americans trust Republicans to do a better job handling inflation than trust Democrats.

Inflation, recession and the 2022 midterms

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted May 3, 2022 at 6:00am
Vice President Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden leave the Capitol following Biden's speech in Statuary Hall on Jan. 6.

In 2024, it could be Biden, Harris or bust

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted April 25, 2022 at 3:57pm
Rep. Chuck Fleischmann, R-Tenn., and Herschel Walker watch from the sidelines during the Congressional Football Game at Gallaudet University in Washington in 2017. Walker is running for Senate in Georgia.

From Schwarzenegger to Oz, GOP celebrities in politics

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted April 5, 2022 at 6:00am
President Joe Biden's poll numbers illustrate the challenge to Democrats as they approach the November midterm elections.

New polls confirm Democratic problems for November

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted March 29, 2022 at 12:31pm
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., argues with Rep. Debbie Dingell, D-Mich., off camera, during a "Build Back Better for Women" rally held by Democrats on the House steps in September.

Crippling blood-drenched communists: Extreme name-calling in 2022

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted March 23, 2022 at 6:00am
President Joe Biden at his State of the Union address last week. Biden's job approval in a Marist survey surged by 27 points among Democrats and 17 points among independents.

Why the Marist Poll is worth considering

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted March 8, 2022 at 6:00am
Republican Sen. Rob Portman typified the kind of mainstream conservative Ohio elected, but candidates seeking to succeed him are appealing to the party's extremes, columnist Stu Rothenberg writes.

As Ohio became reliably red, the Republican Party was changing

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted February 24, 2022 at 6:00am
President Joe Biden, seen in the Capitol last month with Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer and Speaker Nancy Pelosi, will be the focus of the midterm election dynamic, a pattern following other midterm dynamics, Stuart Rothenberg writes.

When nothing beats something

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted February 16, 2022 at 6:30am
Vice President Mike Pence is seen here with Speaker Nancy Pelosi during the joint session of Congress to certify the Electoral College votes on Jan. 7, 2021. Rioters had stormed the Capitol the day before.

Don’t bet on the GOP coming to its senses just yet

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted February 8, 2022 at 6:00am
President Joe Biden speaks to the media after attending a Senate Democrats luncheon in Russell Building to discuss ending the filibuster to pass voting rights bills on Jan. 13.

What was Joe Biden supposed to do in his first year?

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted January 26, 2022 at 6:00am
President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris’ approval ratings are likely a big factor in how Democrats do in the 2022 midterm elections, Rothenberg writes.

Don’t rule out a GOP Senate wave

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted January 12, 2022 at 6:00am
An image of President Donald Trump appears on video screens before his speech to supporters on Jan. 6, 2021, as Congress prepared to certify the Electoral College votes.

Jan. 6, 2021, the ‘New Right’ and a republic at risk

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted January 5, 2022 at 6:30am
It’s hard to imagine a Republican like the late Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens — here in 2003 — being intimidated by Donald Trump, Rothenberg writes.

Senate membership shows how the parties have changed

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted December 15, 2021 at 6:15am
As usual, Stu Rothenberg finds some space for Texas Rep. Louie Gohmert, in his annual Best and Worst awards.

Rothenberg’s Best and Worst end-of-the-year awards for 2021

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted December 2, 2021 at 6:30am
Republican Glenn Youngkin defeated Democrat Terry McAuliffe for the Virginia governorship earlier this month, but the commonwealth continues to lean toward the Democrats in federal statewide races, Rothenberg writes.

So, what color is Virginia now?

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted November 16, 2021 at 10:00am
Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., right, and Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, D-S.C., talk about the infrastructure bill before the House voted Friday.

For Democrats, the future goes from bad to worse

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted November 9, 2021 at 6:00am
President Joe Biden campaigns with Democrat Terry McAuliffe, who is seeking a return to the Virginia governor’s mansion, in Arlington, Va., on July 23.

Could anti-Trump messaging be more effective in 2022 than in 2021?

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted November 1, 2021 at 9:14am
Former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, seen here at a 2019 rally for Joe Biden, finds himself in a tight race for the governorship even though Virginia has been trending Democratic for years, Rothenberg writes.

All politics isn’t local anymore

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted October 18, 2021 at 12:00pm
There was plenty of analysis over how Mitch McConnell “blinked” over the debt limit, but it’s just part of a game that everyone understands, Rothenberg writes.

The song remains the same old song

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted October 12, 2021 at 6:30am
Former President Donald Trump is looking to be the difference in several GOP primaries in 2022, Rothenberg writes.

Trump and the pursuit of complete and total control

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted September 28, 2021 at 10:00am
President Joe Biden and Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer are seen in the Capitol in July. Democrats are struggling to unify their party around Biden’s agenda, Rothenberg writes.

Democrats’ deepening dilemma

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted September 21, 2021 at 12:00pm
Pro-Trump rioters breach the Capitol on Jan. 6. The former president is a polarizing figure and attitudes toward him have reshaped modern voting patterns, Rothenberg writes.

Today’s politics is a throwback to the ’90s — the 1890s

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted September 14, 2021 at 11:00am
Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan, watches a video of former President Donald Trump play during a House Judiciary Subcommittee hearing in February on domestic terrorism.

Trump remains the key to 2022

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted August 3, 2021 at 1:52pm
President Joe Biden has said he wants to bridge partisan differences. It hasn't worked out, and it's unclear how it could happen, Stu Rothenberg writes.

How might political polarization and gridlock end?

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted July 28, 2021 at 6:00am
Florida Democrat Val B. Demings brings plenty of assets to her Senate challenge to Republican incumbent Marco Rubio, but the state’s partisan tilt cannot be ignored, Rothenberg writes.

Why Rubio remains the favorite for reelection against Demings

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted July 20, 2021 at 6:00am
Unified Democratic control of Washington, exemplified by President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer and Speaker Nancy Pelosi, could well lead to Republican midterm gains next year, but historic parallels only take you so far in today's polarized environment, Rothenberg writes.

Why comparing the 2022 midterm dynamics to 1966 is risky

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted July 12, 2021 at 9:00am
Demonstrators participate in a June 23 rally outside the Supreme Court held by the Poor People’s Campaign, calling for elimination of the legislative filibuster and passage of the "For The People" bill to overhaul voting rights, ethics and campaign finance laws.

Democrats lack leverage on top priority

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted June 29, 2021 at 10:00am
Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo wrote to Stu Rothenberg, who would like to respond in kind.

Dear Mike Pompeo: Thanks for your email

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted June 22, 2021 at 8:00am
Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock could benefit from straight-ticket voting in a state carried by Joe Biden, but Biden did so by just a hair, Rothenberg notes.

Will straight-ticket voting upset the midterm dynamic in battle for Senate?

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted June 16, 2021 at 6:00am
A blowup figure lies on the ground outside the Supreme Court on Wednesday as the Declaration for American Democracy coalition hosts a rally calling on the Senate to pass the S 1 elections overhaul.

Preparing for the election, whatever the rules

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted June 9, 2021 at 12:36pm
For those hoping for more thoughtful, less partisan discussions in Congress about the challenges facing the country, the last six months have been a disappointment, Rothenberg writes.

Still in trouble … and getting worse

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted May 25, 2021 at 6:00am
Sens. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin and Bob Casey Jr. of Pennsylvania are among the Democrats first elected in years that helped create a Democratic imbalance that has lasted through several election cycles.

The Democrats’ 2024 Senate problem

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted May 18, 2021 at 10:00am
President Joe Biden fist-bumps Vice President Kamala Harris at his April 28 joint session address as Speaker Nancy Pelosi looks on. Voters may end up frowning on his expansive government agenda, Rothenberg writes.

Is the era of small government over?

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted May 11, 2021 at 5:00am
The constant media coverage of fringe figures and controversy doesn't leave much room for discussions of political issues in a mature and considered manner, Rothenberg writes.

The trivialization of American politics

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted April 28, 2021 at 7:00am
Joe Biden is off to a “fast start” to his presidency similar to that of his predecessor Barack Obama, but his party may not meet the same fate in next year’s midterms as it did in 2010, Rothenberg writes.

Presidential ‘fast starts’ come with electoral risk

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted April 13, 2021 at 6:00am
Former President George W. Bush arrives to the West Front of the Capitol for the Inauguration of Joe Biden in Washington on Wednesday, Jan. 20, 2021.

They hated him before they respected him

By Stuart Rothenberg
Posted March 23, 2021 at 10:00am