​Before Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz was a vice-presidential nominee and Democrats’ favorite Midwestern dad, he was a moderate House member who broke with his party and opposed the Great Recession’s auto industry bailout, which backers credit with saving as many as 1.5 million jobs.

So far, those nearly 16-year-old votes aren’t proving a hindrance to Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign in Michigan, home to nearly one-fifth of U.S. auto production, according to the Michigan Economic Development Corporation. She’s held onto a roughly 2-point advantage in the RealClearPolitics polling average over former President Donald Trump in the must-win battleground state since before announcing Walz as her running mate. 

While Walz has gone on to become a darling of labor unions and the Democratic Party’s progressive wing, he started out his political as a centrist voice representing a divided district. His transformation has included going from opposing government intervention to prop up the industry to joining striking United Auto Workers members on the picket line last year and establishing a progressive track record as Minnesota governor.

The ticket’s UAW endorsement is helping erase memories of Walz’ sophomore year in Congress, when in 2008 he voted against $14 billion in direct loans and lines of credit for cash-strapped automakers General Motors and Chrysler. At the time, they were two of the “Big Three” U.S. automakers along with Ford Motor Co., which did not take federal funds.

The industry aid bill passed the House despite opposition from Walz and 19 other Democrats, plus 150 Republicans. But it stalled in the Senate after a procedural motion fell short of the 60 votes needed to advance the bill; all but two Democrats backed the motion while GOP senators voted 3-to-1 in opposition.

Populist votes

Walz, who flipped a GOP district in 2006, wasn’t a member of the centrist Blue Dog Coalition. But many of those House Democratic “no” votes on the auto bailout bill were — including then-Rep. Collin C. Peterson, D-Minn., a perennial GOP target from a neighboring district and eventually lost his seat in 2020.

“Nothing in this bill will prevent the auto manufacturers and their suppliers from continuing to move jobs overseas,” Walz said in a statement at the time, according to the Austin Daily Herald. “And we have no guarantee that spending $15 billion in taxpayers’ money will actually solve the Big Three’s problems. We must preserve and create jobs in America but this isn’t the way to do it.”

Earlier, Walz voted with the minority of his party to oppose the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program to backstop failing financial institutions, though many more Democrats — 63 in all — cast “no” votes than on the auto relief bill. He cited similar concerns about taxpayer protection and Wall Street accountability for the housing crisis.

Subsequently, Presidents George W. Bush and later Barack Obama went around Congress and tapped TARP funds to aid the automakers, doling out $80 billion to GM, Chrysler, their financing arms and parts suppliers. Ultimately most of the money was repaid; the Congressional Budget Office estimates the net cost to taxpayers at $12 billion. 

The bailouts may have saved as many as 1.5 million jobs, according to a 2013 study by the Center for Automotive Research. Still, employment in the automotive industry fell by one-third during the great recession and UAW membership reached an all-time low in 2009, totaling just 355,000 members after a peak of 1.5 million in 1970. 

Aiding the auto industry became a feature of Obama’s Michigan campaigns, and President Joe Biden — Obama’s vice president — picked up the mantle during his 2020 run. Biden flipped Michigan after former Trump’s win there in 2016, and it could be decisive again this year for Harris and Walz. 

Against that backdrop, its striking that the Democratic presidential nominee is now sharing the ticket with someone who voted against government aid to two of the state’s top employers. Walz campaign staff were unable to provide comment by presstime on how he would vote on the auto bailout if he could do it again.

‘Already gotten the message’

Corwin Smidt, an associate professor of political science at Michigan State University, thinks it’s unlikely that Walz’ long-ago votes would have an impact, given his UAW endorsement and pro-labor record.

“You could see some of these last-minute ads get sent out that say, ‘Walz voted against the bailout,’ and try to wring out uninformed voters, but those people [auto workers] have already gotten the message,” said Smidt. “People who are UAW connected have already gotten the message, whether they agree with it or not, they’re not going to be swayed by a last-minute attack about the bailout.” 

Two days after Vice President Kamala Harris announced Walz as her running mate, the presumptive Democratic ticket appeared at UAW Local 900 in Wayne, Michigan along with UAW President Shawn Fain. “Gov. Tim Walz is one of us,” Fain said to raucous applause. 

The UAW president fired up the crowd again Monday during the first night of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.

“This election comes down to one question: Which side are you on? On one side, we have Kamala Harris and Tim Walz, who have stood shoulder-to-shoulder with the working class. On the other side, we have Trump and Vance, two lapdogs for the billionaire class who only serve themselves,” Fain said, referring to the Ohio GOP senator and vice-presidential nominee.

It’s not clear that any attacks from the Trump-Vance campaign on the topic would stick. 

Vance’s home state ranks third for auto manufacturing jobs behind only Michigan and Indiana, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Like Walz, Vance — who wasn’t in Congress at the time of the 2008 bailout vote — joined striking UAW workers on the picket line last year. 

Trump himself has been inconsistent in his views on whether the U.S. should have rescued the industry, and most Republicans in Congress at the time opposed the bailout. 

Trump-Vance campaign staff couldn’t be reached for comment by presstime.

According to Smidt, union ties in Michigan stretch across party lines and are likely to have a bigger impact than the bailout vote because voters are more likely to identify with the workers than the corporations which benefited.

“The people who work at the plants, oftentimes are split politically, but they’re definitely UAW people. They listen to the union, they might not vote the way the union tells them to, but they hear what the union says. The strikes recently have shown that it’s not like the union is losing strength here,” Smidt said.

Smidt sees the union connection extending beyond current auto workers.

“It’s a smaller workforce today, but there are these people who, even though they aren’t directly connected to UAW, they had a family member who, even in the 30s or 40s, was a part of it, and they still identify with the union, that’s a Michigan thing,” said Smidt. “That’s a Michigan sort of issue that they want to care about.”

Gaza a bigger focus

University of Michigan public opinion researcher Michael W. Traugott thinks the bigger threat to the Harris-Walz campaign in Michigan is voters sitting out the presidential race in protest of the Biden administration’s support for Israel’s war in Gaza. 

“This is going to be a very close election, and a significant factor determining the outcome is going to be turnout,” said Traugott. “Who can get more of their supporters to the polls? There’s a special issue in Michigan, which is the Biden administration’s policy with regard to Gaza and Israel.”

Voters concerned about the war in Gaza may not vote in the presidential election or may cast their vote for someone like Cornel West, but they would be unlikely to support Donald Trump, according to Traugott.

“You could look at the UAW endorsement as a kind of counterbalance to the loss of support among Arab Americans in the state,” he said. 

David Lerman contributed to this report.